The Canadian election takes place tomorrow, a day after Canadian Thanksgiving, giving the parties one last opportunity for campaigning.
The world's economic difficulties seem to be finally catching up with Stephen Harper's Conservative Party, whose polling has slipped to 34%, only a handful ahead of Stephane Dion's Liberal Party, who are now running at 29%.
In terms of seat distribution, this would leave the Conservatives with 128, well short of a majority (155 is the magic number), and just one more than at the start of the campaign, with the Liberals on 92, down six on the end of the last parliament.
The 'winners' in this situation would be the NDP, who are set to earn 19% of the vote and pick up 4 seats (up to 34), and the Bloc Quebecois, who will win back rural seats from the Conservatives, and go from 48 to 52 seats. The Bloc are currently on 9% of the national vote and 39% in Quebec itself.
The Greens meanwhile are currently on 8% of the national vote, but are unlikely to be able to make that count in any single seat. Two independents are backed to be elected.
Showing posts with label Bloc Quebecois. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bloc Quebecois. Show all posts
Monday, October 13, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
A Conservative Majority?
No, I'm not talking about the Conservative conference here!
I'm actually talking about the Canadian general election, who go to the polls in a little over a fortnight.
One of the interesting talking points is whether Stephen Harper's Conservative party will be able to ensure a majority government, in contrast to what might be a coalition Liberal/NDP government, as suggested by NDP leader Jack Layton .
Last week's polls by IPSOS suggested that the Conservatives will be closer to reaching the magic '155' than in the previous parliament, partly because the anti-Conservative vote will be split in so many different directions between the four opposition parties.
IPSOS polls suggest 153 seats for the Conservatives (up 26 on the last parliament), with the Liberals going down to 86 (down 12) under new leader Stephane Dion, fighting his first election in charge of the Grits, with losses of 7 for the Bloc Quebecois (down from 48 to 41) and a drop of 3 for the NDP (from 30 to 27). 1 independent is predicted to hold onto their seat.
On a national polling level, the IPSOS poll gives the Conservatives 39%, with the Liberals sliding to 23%, NDP 18%, Greens on 11% and the Bloc on 8% nationally and 32% in Quebec itself, 8 points ahead of the Conservatives, their nearest challengers.
Note the difference between the Liberal, NDP and Green polling and their respective seat predictions.
In Atlantic Canada, where I lived for a time, the Liberals are well out in the lead, with 40% over the four provinces and the NDP and Conservatives level on 26% each.
I'm actually talking about the Canadian general election, who go to the polls in a little over a fortnight.
One of the interesting talking points is whether Stephen Harper's Conservative party will be able to ensure a majority government, in contrast to what might be a coalition Liberal/NDP government, as suggested by NDP leader Jack Layton .
Last week's polls by IPSOS suggested that the Conservatives will be closer to reaching the magic '155' than in the previous parliament, partly because the anti-Conservative vote will be split in so many different directions between the four opposition parties.
IPSOS polls suggest 153 seats for the Conservatives (up 26 on the last parliament), with the Liberals going down to 86 (down 12) under new leader Stephane Dion, fighting his first election in charge of the Grits, with losses of 7 for the Bloc Quebecois (down from 48 to 41) and a drop of 3 for the NDP (from 30 to 27). 1 independent is predicted to hold onto their seat.
On a national polling level, the IPSOS poll gives the Conservatives 39%, with the Liberals sliding to 23%, NDP 18%, Greens on 11% and the Bloc on 8% nationally and 32% in Quebec itself, 8 points ahead of the Conservatives, their nearest challengers.
Note the difference between the Liberal, NDP and Green polling and their respective seat predictions.
In Atlantic Canada, where I lived for a time, the Liberals are well out in the lead, with 40% over the four provinces and the NDP and Conservatives level on 26% each.
Monday, September 08, 2008
Canada Votes 2008
Canada will be going to the polls on October 14th after Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, decided to go for an early election, less than three years after the Winter election in January 2006 that saw him elected as leader of a minority government.
I was living in Canada during much of that election campaign (it's hard to believe that it's nearly an election cycle ago!) , so will be keeping a close eye on what happens there over the next few weeks, mostly through the CPAC tv channel.
With a first past the post electoral system, it's very difficult for any one party to gain a working majority in Canada (155 of the 308 seats), mainly due to the solid vote for Quebec sovereignist party, the Bloc Quebecois.
Currently, the Conservatives have 127 seats, the Liberals have 98, Bloc have 48, the New Democratic Party (NDP) have 30 while there are a number of independents, one of whom (Blair Wilson) was elected as a Liberal but has defected to the Greens, whose recent polling has apparently been as high as the mid-teens.
With four parties standing across the entire country and the Bloc making it a five-party contest in Quebec, election night could be very messy in determining any widespread trends across Canada.
One more point, though: Harper is going to the polls supposedly for a mandate to lead a government through economic troubled times. How very different to Gordon Brown and his dithering last year when he could have had such a mandate himself.
I was living in Canada during much of that election campaign (it's hard to believe that it's nearly an election cycle ago!) , so will be keeping a close eye on what happens there over the next few weeks, mostly through the CPAC tv channel.
With a first past the post electoral system, it's very difficult for any one party to gain a working majority in Canada (155 of the 308 seats), mainly due to the solid vote for Quebec sovereignist party, the Bloc Quebecois.
Currently, the Conservatives have 127 seats, the Liberals have 98, Bloc have 48, the New Democratic Party (NDP) have 30 while there are a number of independents, one of whom (Blair Wilson) was elected as a Liberal but has defected to the Greens, whose recent polling has apparently been as high as the mid-teens.
With four parties standing across the entire country and the Bloc making it a five-party contest in Quebec, election night could be very messy in determining any widespread trends across Canada.
One more point, though: Harper is going to the polls supposedly for a mandate to lead a government through economic troubled times. How very different to Gordon Brown and his dithering last year when he could have had such a mandate himself.
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